Currently, there are 5 teams that look poised to make a run for an at-large bid. Many projections show as many as 4 teams making it from this conference. To me, it is the most difficult conference to decipher what is going to happen. I’m convinced that 3 teams will make it, but any combination is feasible.
Almost all the heavyweights play each other again, and that may cause quite a bit of parity in the mountains. I see Utah, UNLV, and BYU as needing 10 wins to be in position for an at-large berth. I think New Mexico and San Diego State might need 12. BYU has by far the toughest road, playing 6 teams in a row in the top 115 in the RPI, 4 of these games being on the road. At this point, New Mexico seems like a long shot, but it is not too much to ask for them to beat S.D. State and Utah in the Pit and then go on the road and knock off Wyoming and Colorado State. Winning 5 of 6 is very possible for them, and that would put them at 12-4. Utah is the conferences best chance at an at-large. They have racked up more quality wins than anybody else, and the Utah-chaired committee will be willing to look past a couple of hiccups on the way. UNLV has two tough games on the road against Utah and S.D. State. Even if they lose both of these games, winning the rest of their games would still look pretty good. San Diego State has home games against BYU and UNLV. If they can win them both and avoid any upsets, they’ll be looking pretty good too.
In the best case scenario, I think it’s entirely possible this conference gets 5 bids. All it would take would be for the Big 5 to protect their home court and win all their road games against the bottom end of the confernce. Here’s how:
New Mexico
@ BYU L
San Diego St. W
TCU W
@Colorado St. W
Utah W
@ Wyoming W
Utah
Air Force W
@Colorado St. W
UNLV W
@BYU L
@New Mexico L
TCU W
UNLV
Colorado St. W
@Wyoming W
BYU W
@Utah L
Air Force W
@S.D. St. L
BYU
@TCU W
New Mexico W
@UNLV L
@S.D. St. L
Utah W
@Wyoming W
Air Force W
San Diego St.
Wyoming W
@New Mexico L
BYU W
@TCU W
Colorado St. W
UNLV W
In this scenario, the conference standings would be:
W L
San Diego St. 12 4
New Mexico 12 4
Utah 12 4
BYU 11 5
UNLV 10 6
So if it ended up this way, and UNLV did some damage in the conference tournament, it would be difficult to hold any of these teams out of the tournament. This league could possibly get more bids than the SEC.
Friday, February 13, 2009
The First Breakdown
Here is an in-depth study on all the bubble teams, including my predictions of which will rise to the occasion and which will not.
West Virginia
Remaining Schedule - Villanova, Notre Dame, @Rutgers, @Cincinnati, @South Florida, DePaul, Louisville
Status - West Virginia is teetering on the edge of being in serious danger of missing the tournament. Their 15th ranking in the RPI helps them, but their 2-7 record against the RPI top 50 certainly does not. In a schedule that has 3 easy games left, and no impossible games, I expect them to finish anywhere from 5-2 to 7-0 and lock themselves in. 4-3 would probably be enough, but why sweat it?
Projection - They’ll come through and make the tournament, and then will go on to make the Sweet 16 as they usually do.
Cincinnati
Remaining Schedule - @Pitt, Louisville, West Virginia, @Syracuse, @South Florida, Seton Hall
Status - This team is still 0-6 against the RPI top 25 and they have 2 losses outside the top 50. Considering they’re most likely going to lose @Pitt on Saturday, they’ll need to win at least 1 of 2 against Louisville and West Virginia and get wins at South Florida and at home versus Seton Hall. That would put them at 10-8 in the conference and squarely on the bubble. 11-7 is the mark they need to reach to feel good come Selection Sunday.
Projection - They’ll go 3-3 down the stretch, lose in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT.
Providence
Remaining Schedule - Rutgers, at Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, @Rutgers, @Villanova
Status - They are 7-5 in the Big East and have 2 gimmes against Rutgers. That puts them at 9 wins, but they might need 11 due to their terrible non-conference resume. They’re 1-6 against the top 50 and 5-9 against the top 100. They’ve avoided the bad loss, but haven’t managed any marquee wins. If they can protect their home court against Notre Dame, that would help, but another win looks tough to come by.
Projection - They’ll finish 10-8 in the Big East. They’ll need to do something in the Big East tournament to get in, and they wont.
Georgetown
Remaining Schedule - @Syracuse, @South Florida, Marquette, Louisville, @Villanova, @St. Johns, DePaul
Status - It gets tougher before it is going to get easier for this team. They have SOS working for them, but their overall and conference records, along with their recent losing streak, work against them drastically. They’ll need to protect their home court and get 2 road wins (@ USF and St. Johns are the easy ones) to get up to 9-9 in the conference. Unlike Providence and Cincinnati, this team has some quality wins to fall back on. They don’t need to get over .500 to get a bid.
Projection - They’ll lose their next game before reeling off 5 of 6 to end the regular season. They’ll then make it at least to the quarters of the conference tournament and make it to the Big Dance.
Notre Dame
Remaining Schedule - USF, @WVU, @Providence, Rutgers, @UCONN, Villanova, St. John’s
Status - They are 4-7 in league play and need to get up to 9-9 to have a shot, otherwise they’ll have to do work in the Big East tourney. That will be tough to do considering they have 3 road games that look like losses and Villanova comes to town. They’ll need to protect their home court and get a win on the road to be in the mix. It would really help them to see Texas and Georgetown, two teams they beat, to end the season strongly.
Projection - Maybe the win against Louisville turned things around, but I doubt it. They finish 7-11.
Seton Hall
Remaining Schedule - UCONN, @Marquette, @St. John’s, USF, Pitt, @Louisville, @Cincinnati
Status - They are 90th in the RPI and 5-6 in the conference, but they have a schedule that will definitely give them the opportunity to improve on those numbers. If they can get home victories against UCONN and Pitt, that would be huge. Splitting their road games would put them at 10-8 in the conference, and with two marquee wins like that, they’ll be hard to look past.
Projection - I don’t think they are talented enough to get it done, but after starting 0-6, they’ve reeled off 5 straight. I'm tempted, but I'll say no for now.
Dayton
Remaining Schedule - Richmond, @St. Louis, @URI, Temple, @Xavier, Duquesne
Status - The win against Xavier was huge and they are looking like a lock. I’ll afford them one more bad loss and say that 4-2 down the stretch will be good enough to lock them in.
Projection - They will lose once more, but it wont be to Xavier. Rhode Island will gun them down.
Temple
Remaining Schedule - @Duquesne, Fordham, St. Bonnies, La Salle, @Dayton, St. Joe’s, @GW
Status - The computers love Temple, and they do have a win against Tennessee. Somehow, the A10 did not allow them the opportunity to play Xavier or Dayton at home, which is unfortunate. If they were to win all their remaining games and lose in the finals of the A10 tournament, that probably would be good enough.
Projection - Not going to happen.
Virginia Tech
Remaining Schedule - @Maryland, @Virginia, Florida State, @Clemson, Duke, UNC, @FSU
Status - Things are on the up and up now, but their remaining schedule is absolutely brutal. I’m not sure if 8-8 would be good enough for them to get in. They need to win @Virginia and beat Florida State at home. If they get 1 win out of @Maryland, @Clemson, @FSU, Duke, or UNC that would put them at 9-7 and probably in safely.
Projection - They’ll beat either Duke or UNC at home and find the necessary wins to lock their bid up.
Boston College
Remaining Schedule - Duke, @Miami, Florida State, @NC St, Georgia Tech
Status - They should be aiming at a 3-2 finish to get to 9-7 in the conference to warrant consideration. If they play well they will get there. If they don’t, they wont.
Projection - They’ll win exactly 1 more game the rest of the season.
Miami Florida
Remaining Schedule - UNC, @FSU, BC, @Virginia, @Georgia Tech, NC St.
Status - They are only 4-6 in conference and that is hurting them. It’s tough to tell exactly what they have to do, but finishing 4-2 may or may not be enough. Their last 4 games are all winnable, so I think it comes down to splitting UNC and @FSU. A 5-1 finish would lock them in.
Projection - I have no idea. I’ll say out.
Maryland
Remaining Schedule - VT, @Clemson, UNC, Duke, @NC St., Wake Forest, @Virginia
Status - They are still alive, but they still have to play the 4 best teams in the conference. 3 of these are at home, luckily. If they split those 4, take care of Virginia Tech at home, and go on the road and knock off NC State and lowly Virginia, that would put them at 9-7 in the conference. With non conference wins against both the Michigan teams, that seems like a great resume. An 8-8 finish means they will be alive going into the ACC tourney.
Projection - They’ll finish at 8-8, and the ACC tournament will decide their fate. Gary Williams will have to prove that he still has it. Unfortunately, he doesn’t.
NC State
Remaining Schedule - @Georgia Tech, @UNC, Virginia, @Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston C, @Miami
Status - They’ll need 6 wins out of these 7, and with road trips to UNC and Wake Forest, this seems unlikely.
Projection - I love the Wolfpack, so I’ll say they win the ACC tourney. Honestly though, that will never happen.
Nebraska
Remaining Schedule - @Missouri, Colorado, @Kansas, TAMU, @K-State, Iowa St., @Baylor
Status - Although they are above .500 in league play currently, they have 3 losses outside the RPI top 100 holding them back. Even if they go 4-3 to end the season and end up at 9-7, I think they’ll need even more in the Big 12 tourney to get a bid. If they win all their home games and get 2 road wins they would be a lot more comfortable.
Projection - I think this one is going to come down to how they do in the Big 12 tourney. They may need a trip to the semis there. I'll call them out.
Texas A&M
Remaining Schedule - @Baylor, Texas, @T-Tech, @Nebraska, Iowa State, @Colorado, Missouri
Status - Their wins in the non-conference against LSU and Arizona are looking better by the second. They’ve avoided the bad loss bug that has bitten some of the other Big 12 Bubble teams, so they may be able to get away with an 8-8 conference record. Looking at the schedule, it is not difficult to see them winning all of their remaining games. Their two toughest opponents, Texas and Missouri, both will be home games for them. Finishing 5-2 and 8-8 in conference would put them squarely on the bubble, but if they can get 6 more wins they will be looking a lot prettier.
Projection - The schedule is favorable for this team. The question is - are they good enough? I say they are.
Kansas State
Remaining Schedule - Kansas, NC Central, @Iowa St., @Missouri, Nebraska, @Oklahoma St., Colorado
Status - They have a 6-4 record in league play, but their best non-conference win was against Cleveland State and they lost to Oregon. This is a different team now though, their current 6 game winning streak makes that evident. Going 9-7 will not be enough for this team, they need to get 4 more wins in the league. If they do that, they should be safe.
Projection - The schedule isn’t too tough, so I think they’ll get there.
Oklahoma State
Remaining Schedule - Iowa State, @Texas Tech, Baylor, @Colorado, Texas, Kansas St., @Oklahoma
Status - They are fading fast, and although they have avoided any bad losses, they have yet to cash in on their opportunities. They need to win 6 of 7 if they don’t want to rely on the Big 12 tournament. Looking at the schedule, it is feasible.
Projection - They will trip up a few times along the way and will not make it.
Baylor
Remaining Schedule - TAMU, @Okla St., @Iowa St., Colorado, @Texas, Nebraska
Status - They are 3-7 in the Big 12 with a 2-8 record against the top 50. Needless to say, they need to do a lot. Going 5-1 down the stretch would give them a shot to prove themselves worthy in the Big 12 tournament. But the way they are playing right now, this seems unlikely.
Projection - They are a serious long shot. I say they end up 5-11 in the conference.
Michigan
Remaining Schedule - @Northwestern, Minnesota, @Iowa, Purdue, @Wisconsin, @Minnesota
Status - After winning their first 3 Big 10 contests, they’ve dropped 7 of 9. They have UCLA and Duke wins working in their favor, but they need a lot more to make a case. The schedule is absolutely brutal, I think they need to find 4 wins in there and get up to even in Big 10 play to have a shot. That means protecting the home court and getting 2 wins on the road.
Projection - This team is a conundrum. They can hang in there with the best, but they just can’t seem to win games. The trend will continue and they’ll be left in the cold.
Wisconsin
Remaining Schedule - Ohio State, @Indiana, @Michigan State, Michigan, @Minnesota, Indiana
Status - The “Georgetown” of the conference, they have incredible computer numbers in their favor. They are 8-9 overall versus the top 100 and haven’t lost any games outside that group. I think 9-9 in the Big 10 would suffice, which would require them to beat Indiana twice and take care of Michigan at home. If they beat Ohio State on Saturday, it will be smooth sailing for them
Projection - They finish up at 10-8 in the conference and make their perennial trip to the Big Dance.
Penn State
Remaining Schedule - Minnesota, @Illinois, @Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, @Iowa
Status - Their computer numbers already make them in a much more precarious spot than their bubble mate Wisconsin, and the schedule doesn’t help them out at all. They play 4 tournament teams in their last 6. A 9-9 finish makes them an iffy candidate, but if they can protect the home court and win one on the road (@Iowa?), that would put them at 10-8 in the conference and in good shape.
Projection - Aside from their win @Michigan State, they haven’t done much at all. I don’t think they have the fire power to make it through crunch time.
UAB
Remaining Schedule - A bunch of C-USA teams and Memphis
Status - Simply put, they need to win all their games down the stretch, including their home game against Memphis.
Projection - No no no no no.
Siena
Remaining Schedule - @Iona, Northern Iowa, @Niagara, @Canisius
Status - They are 6-0 against RPI 51-100, but are 0 for 4 in their attempts against the top 50. Combined with their two losses outside the top 100, they have quite a flimsy resume, despite their high RPI. They have 2 more games against the RPI top 100 on their schedule, but 3 more games on the road. If they win out and fail to win the MAAC tournament, I think they would still sneak in there.
Projection - They’ll stumble @Niagara but win the automatic bid anyways.
Creighton
Remaining Schedule - @Southern Illinois, Evansville, @Missouri State, Illinois State
Status - They have been creeping up the boards as of late despite the fact that they’ve only faced 1 team in the top 50 (a win against Dayton). They are 4-3 against 51-100, but have 3 losses outside the top 100. If they win out, that would give them 2 more top 100 wins and a 14-4 conference record. If they lost in the tournament final, they would be hard to pass up.
Projection - They’ll do enough to warrant an at-large bid, but they’ll win the conference anyways.
Utah
Remaining Schedule - Air Force, @Colorado State, UNLV, @BYU, @New Mexico, TCU
Status - Although I don’t believe they are very good, they are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 and 3-1 against 51-100. The glaring problem on their resume is their two losses outside the top 100, one of which was to a Division II school. I think a very do-able 4-2 down the stretch will lock them in without any help in the conference tournament.
Projection - Even if they trip up, the committee chair this year is a representative of Utah. Lock ‘em in.
UNLV
Remaining Schedule - Colorado State, @Wyoming, BYU, @Utah, Air Force, @San Diego State
Status - They have 3 wins in the RPI top 50, including 2 in the top 25. They also beat 51st ranked Arizona, so as they continue to climb, so does UNLV. Like Utah, they have 2 losses outside the top 100. At 6-4 in the conference currently, they should be aiming at a 10-6 finish. They have 3 of the other bubble contenders left on their schedule, so beating BYU at home, where they haven’t been all that impressive, is imperative.
Projection - I think they will look past Wyoming and lose in Laramie. They’ll end up either 8-8 or 9-7 in the league, and even the Las Vegas home factor wont help them in the conference tournament. I think they will fall out.
BYU
Remaining Schedule - @TCU, New Mexico, @UNLV, @San Diego St., Utah, @ Wyoming, Air Force
Status - While UNLV and Utah have good wins coupled with bad losses, BYU doesn’t really have either. Their wins against Utah State and San Diego State are their only ones in the top 50, but all their losses come to teams in the top 75. The schedule for them is absolutely brutal. They have to play all of their bubble mates in a row, 2 of them on a road, and then to top it all off they have to win in the mountains of Wyoming. They can get by with a 4-3 finish to get to 10-6 in the conference.
Projection - BYU will have a tough time of it, like UNLV, and wont make it. Critics will call it the biggest injustice of the year.
San Diego State
Remaining Schedule - Wyoming, @New Mexico, BYU, @TCU, Colorado St., UNLV
Status - They only have 3 wins against the top 100, including 1 against the top 50, and have a lose to 108 Wyoming. The schedule is easy in comparison to some of the others, and if they can win all their games save their trip to New Mexico, they’ll be 12-4 in the conference and will be looking good despite their lackluster non-conference resume.
Projection - Not only do they end up 12-4, they win the MWC tournament.
New Mexico
Remaining Schedule - @BYU, San Diego State, TCU, @Colorado St., Utah, @Wyoming
Status - Despite their 7-3 conference record, they have only 3 wins against the RPI top 100, exactly how many losses they have outside the top 100. However, they have 3 games left against the top 50, and 2 of them are at home. If they can win 2 of those 3 and win their other 3, their 12-4 conference record would look swell. Just swell.
Projection - I think they’ll win 5 of 6, but that trip to Wyoming is a real trap game. They make it.
Arizona
Remaining Schedule -UCLA, @Arizona St., @Wazu, @Washington, Cal, Stanford
Status - I really like their resume as of right now. 5-6 against the top 50, 2-2 against 51-100, and no losses outside of the top 100 looks legit. Their last 6 games, 3 of which are on the road, are extremely tough (all teams in the top 100 currently). If they get through it at 3-3 that would give them an above .500 record in the Pac 10, and it would be enough.
Projection - They’ll drop 3 of 4 before winning their last 2. That would likely put them in the 4/5 match in the Pac 10 tournament. They’ll win again there and will be a lock.
USC
Remaining Schedule - @Zona St., Wazu, Washington, @Cal, @Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State
Status - They are 6-5 in the conference, and 6-6 against the RPI top 100. Their loss to Oregon State really hurts their chances. If they can win their home games against the Washington and Oregon schools, they would be looking OK.
Projection - They’ll lose 4 more games and will not make it.
South Carolina
Remaining Schedule - @Alabama,, @Miss. St., Arkansas, Kentucky, @Vandy, Tennessee, @Georgia
Status - At 6-3 in the SEC with a 6-4 mark against the RPI top 100, things aren’t too shabby for the Cocks. 4-3 down the stretch would make them awfully bubbly, and with this schedule they should really be aiming for 5 wins. That would lock them in.
Projection - I don’t see any sure losses on this schedule, but only a few sure wins. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they make it.
Kentucky
Remaining Schedule - @Arkansas, @Vanderbilt, Tennessee, @South Carolina, LSU, Georgia, @Florida
Status - Like South Carolina, they are 6-3 on the road. Unlike South Carolina, they have a slightly worse 6-6 record against the top 100, although 2 of those are against the top 25. Their loss to VMI in the first game of the year is a distant memory and shouldn’t carry too much weight for the committee. This schedule is very tough, and they could end up 8-8 in the conference. 10-6 in the weak SEC is a must if they don’t want to rely on the conference tournament.
Projection - They’ll lose 3 of their road games and drop a game at home, putting them at 9-7 in league play and squarely on the bubble. Then, out of nowhere they will rise from the ashes and win the SEC tournament
St. Mary’s
Remaining Schedule - Portland, San Diego, Utah State, @Pepperdine, @Loyola
Status - They have really struggled without Patty Mills, losing 4 of 5. If they win all of their games in the regular season, which would include a win against mighty Utah State, they may have enough for the committee to grant them leniency due to the Mills injury.
Projection - If Mills is back for the WCC tournament, watch out. I’m hoping they’ll be put in regardless, but sometimes the committee doesn’t use common sense. I'll go with my hope and say In.
Davidson
Remaining Schedule - a bunch of scrubs and Butler
Status - Even if they don’t beat Butler, I still think they’d make it if they lost in their conference tournament. Although the resume is rather weak, after what they did last year the committee wouldn’t want to shun Stephen Curry from the tournament. As long as they don’t trip up in their conference regular season, I think they are a lock.
Projection - They won’t lose again until the NCAAs roll around.
Utah State
Remaining Schedule - @Boise State, CS-Bakersfield, @St. Mary’s, Hawaii, @Nevada, SJSU
Status - Their remaining schedule is their most difficult of the year. If they win all of these games, I could see them getting as high as a 4 seed. However if they drop all of those 3 tough road games, and then fail to win the WAC tournament, I can see the committee throwing them out completely.
Projection - They’ll lose 2 more games, but will be fine in the WAC tournament. They will get a 10 seed.
At the end of the day, barring a non-contender stealing a bid via conference tournament (which will happen, as it does every year), there are 5 teams in my current projections that I think won’t make it.
They are:
Miami Florida
UNLV
BYU
Cincinnati
Boston College
The teams I predict will replace them are:
Kansas State
San Diego State
Texas A&M
St. Mary’s
New Mexico
I'll be back with another Bubble Breakdown next week!
West Virginia
Remaining Schedule - Villanova, Notre Dame, @Rutgers, @Cincinnati, @South Florida, DePaul, Louisville
Status - West Virginia is teetering on the edge of being in serious danger of missing the tournament. Their 15th ranking in the RPI helps them, but their 2-7 record against the RPI top 50 certainly does not. In a schedule that has 3 easy games left, and no impossible games, I expect them to finish anywhere from 5-2 to 7-0 and lock themselves in. 4-3 would probably be enough, but why sweat it?
Projection - They’ll come through and make the tournament, and then will go on to make the Sweet 16 as they usually do.
Cincinnati
Remaining Schedule - @Pitt, Louisville, West Virginia, @Syracuse, @South Florida, Seton Hall
Status - This team is still 0-6 against the RPI top 25 and they have 2 losses outside the top 50. Considering they’re most likely going to lose @Pitt on Saturday, they’ll need to win at least 1 of 2 against Louisville and West Virginia and get wins at South Florida and at home versus Seton Hall. That would put them at 10-8 in the conference and squarely on the bubble. 11-7 is the mark they need to reach to feel good come Selection Sunday.
Projection - They’ll go 3-3 down the stretch, lose in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT.
Providence
Remaining Schedule - Rutgers, at Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, @Rutgers, @Villanova
Status - They are 7-5 in the Big East and have 2 gimmes against Rutgers. That puts them at 9 wins, but they might need 11 due to their terrible non-conference resume. They’re 1-6 against the top 50 and 5-9 against the top 100. They’ve avoided the bad loss, but haven’t managed any marquee wins. If they can protect their home court against Notre Dame, that would help, but another win looks tough to come by.
Projection - They’ll finish 10-8 in the Big East. They’ll need to do something in the Big East tournament to get in, and they wont.
Georgetown
Remaining Schedule - @Syracuse, @South Florida, Marquette, Louisville, @Villanova, @St. Johns, DePaul
Status - It gets tougher before it is going to get easier for this team. They have SOS working for them, but their overall and conference records, along with their recent losing streak, work against them drastically. They’ll need to protect their home court and get 2 road wins (@ USF and St. Johns are the easy ones) to get up to 9-9 in the conference. Unlike Providence and Cincinnati, this team has some quality wins to fall back on. They don’t need to get over .500 to get a bid.
Projection - They’ll lose their next game before reeling off 5 of 6 to end the regular season. They’ll then make it at least to the quarters of the conference tournament and make it to the Big Dance.
Notre Dame
Remaining Schedule - USF, @WVU, @Providence, Rutgers, @UCONN, Villanova, St. John’s
Status - They are 4-7 in league play and need to get up to 9-9 to have a shot, otherwise they’ll have to do work in the Big East tourney. That will be tough to do considering they have 3 road games that look like losses and Villanova comes to town. They’ll need to protect their home court and get a win on the road to be in the mix. It would really help them to see Texas and Georgetown, two teams they beat, to end the season strongly.
Projection - Maybe the win against Louisville turned things around, but I doubt it. They finish 7-11.
Seton Hall
Remaining Schedule - UCONN, @Marquette, @St. John’s, USF, Pitt, @Louisville, @Cincinnati
Status - They are 90th in the RPI and 5-6 in the conference, but they have a schedule that will definitely give them the opportunity to improve on those numbers. If they can get home victories against UCONN and Pitt, that would be huge. Splitting their road games would put them at 10-8 in the conference, and with two marquee wins like that, they’ll be hard to look past.
Projection - I don’t think they are talented enough to get it done, but after starting 0-6, they’ve reeled off 5 straight. I'm tempted, but I'll say no for now.
Dayton
Remaining Schedule - Richmond, @St. Louis, @URI, Temple, @Xavier, Duquesne
Status - The win against Xavier was huge and they are looking like a lock. I’ll afford them one more bad loss and say that 4-2 down the stretch will be good enough to lock them in.
Projection - They will lose once more, but it wont be to Xavier. Rhode Island will gun them down.
Temple
Remaining Schedule - @Duquesne, Fordham, St. Bonnies, La Salle, @Dayton, St. Joe’s, @GW
Status - The computers love Temple, and they do have a win against Tennessee. Somehow, the A10 did not allow them the opportunity to play Xavier or Dayton at home, which is unfortunate. If they were to win all their remaining games and lose in the finals of the A10 tournament, that probably would be good enough.
Projection - Not going to happen.
Virginia Tech
Remaining Schedule - @Maryland, @Virginia, Florida State, @Clemson, Duke, UNC, @FSU
Status - Things are on the up and up now, but their remaining schedule is absolutely brutal. I’m not sure if 8-8 would be good enough for them to get in. They need to win @Virginia and beat Florida State at home. If they get 1 win out of @Maryland, @Clemson, @FSU, Duke, or UNC that would put them at 9-7 and probably in safely.
Projection - They’ll beat either Duke or UNC at home and find the necessary wins to lock their bid up.
Boston College
Remaining Schedule - Duke, @Miami, Florida State, @NC St, Georgia Tech
Status - They should be aiming at a 3-2 finish to get to 9-7 in the conference to warrant consideration. If they play well they will get there. If they don’t, they wont.
Projection - They’ll win exactly 1 more game the rest of the season.
Miami Florida
Remaining Schedule - UNC, @FSU, BC, @Virginia, @Georgia Tech, NC St.
Status - They are only 4-6 in conference and that is hurting them. It’s tough to tell exactly what they have to do, but finishing 4-2 may or may not be enough. Their last 4 games are all winnable, so I think it comes down to splitting UNC and @FSU. A 5-1 finish would lock them in.
Projection - I have no idea. I’ll say out.
Maryland
Remaining Schedule - VT, @Clemson, UNC, Duke, @NC St., Wake Forest, @Virginia
Status - They are still alive, but they still have to play the 4 best teams in the conference. 3 of these are at home, luckily. If they split those 4, take care of Virginia Tech at home, and go on the road and knock off NC State and lowly Virginia, that would put them at 9-7 in the conference. With non conference wins against both the Michigan teams, that seems like a great resume. An 8-8 finish means they will be alive going into the ACC tourney.
Projection - They’ll finish at 8-8, and the ACC tournament will decide their fate. Gary Williams will have to prove that he still has it. Unfortunately, he doesn’t.
NC State
Remaining Schedule - @Georgia Tech, @UNC, Virginia, @Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston C, @Miami
Status - They’ll need 6 wins out of these 7, and with road trips to UNC and Wake Forest, this seems unlikely.
Projection - I love the Wolfpack, so I’ll say they win the ACC tourney. Honestly though, that will never happen.
Nebraska
Remaining Schedule - @Missouri, Colorado, @Kansas, TAMU, @K-State, Iowa St., @Baylor
Status - Although they are above .500 in league play currently, they have 3 losses outside the RPI top 100 holding them back. Even if they go 4-3 to end the season and end up at 9-7, I think they’ll need even more in the Big 12 tourney to get a bid. If they win all their home games and get 2 road wins they would be a lot more comfortable.
Projection - I think this one is going to come down to how they do in the Big 12 tourney. They may need a trip to the semis there. I'll call them out.
Texas A&M
Remaining Schedule - @Baylor, Texas, @T-Tech, @Nebraska, Iowa State, @Colorado, Missouri
Status - Their wins in the non-conference against LSU and Arizona are looking better by the second. They’ve avoided the bad loss bug that has bitten some of the other Big 12 Bubble teams, so they may be able to get away with an 8-8 conference record. Looking at the schedule, it is not difficult to see them winning all of their remaining games. Their two toughest opponents, Texas and Missouri, both will be home games for them. Finishing 5-2 and 8-8 in conference would put them squarely on the bubble, but if they can get 6 more wins they will be looking a lot prettier.
Projection - The schedule is favorable for this team. The question is - are they good enough? I say they are.
Kansas State
Remaining Schedule - Kansas, NC Central, @Iowa St., @Missouri, Nebraska, @Oklahoma St., Colorado
Status - They have a 6-4 record in league play, but their best non-conference win was against Cleveland State and they lost to Oregon. This is a different team now though, their current 6 game winning streak makes that evident. Going 9-7 will not be enough for this team, they need to get 4 more wins in the league. If they do that, they should be safe.
Projection - The schedule isn’t too tough, so I think they’ll get there.
Oklahoma State
Remaining Schedule - Iowa State, @Texas Tech, Baylor, @Colorado, Texas, Kansas St., @Oklahoma
Status - They are fading fast, and although they have avoided any bad losses, they have yet to cash in on their opportunities. They need to win 6 of 7 if they don’t want to rely on the Big 12 tournament. Looking at the schedule, it is feasible.
Projection - They will trip up a few times along the way and will not make it.
Baylor
Remaining Schedule - TAMU, @Okla St., @Iowa St., Colorado, @Texas, Nebraska
Status - They are 3-7 in the Big 12 with a 2-8 record against the top 50. Needless to say, they need to do a lot. Going 5-1 down the stretch would give them a shot to prove themselves worthy in the Big 12 tournament. But the way they are playing right now, this seems unlikely.
Projection - They are a serious long shot. I say they end up 5-11 in the conference.
Michigan
Remaining Schedule - @Northwestern, Minnesota, @Iowa, Purdue, @Wisconsin, @Minnesota
Status - After winning their first 3 Big 10 contests, they’ve dropped 7 of 9. They have UCLA and Duke wins working in their favor, but they need a lot more to make a case. The schedule is absolutely brutal, I think they need to find 4 wins in there and get up to even in Big 10 play to have a shot. That means protecting the home court and getting 2 wins on the road.
Projection - This team is a conundrum. They can hang in there with the best, but they just can’t seem to win games. The trend will continue and they’ll be left in the cold.
Wisconsin
Remaining Schedule - Ohio State, @Indiana, @Michigan State, Michigan, @Minnesota, Indiana
Status - The “Georgetown” of the conference, they have incredible computer numbers in their favor. They are 8-9 overall versus the top 100 and haven’t lost any games outside that group. I think 9-9 in the Big 10 would suffice, which would require them to beat Indiana twice and take care of Michigan at home. If they beat Ohio State on Saturday, it will be smooth sailing for them
Projection - They finish up at 10-8 in the conference and make their perennial trip to the Big Dance.
Penn State
Remaining Schedule - Minnesota, @Illinois, @Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, @Iowa
Status - Their computer numbers already make them in a much more precarious spot than their bubble mate Wisconsin, and the schedule doesn’t help them out at all. They play 4 tournament teams in their last 6. A 9-9 finish makes them an iffy candidate, but if they can protect the home court and win one on the road (@Iowa?), that would put them at 10-8 in the conference and in good shape.
Projection - Aside from their win @Michigan State, they haven’t done much at all. I don’t think they have the fire power to make it through crunch time.
UAB
Remaining Schedule - A bunch of C-USA teams and Memphis
Status - Simply put, they need to win all their games down the stretch, including their home game against Memphis.
Projection - No no no no no.
Siena
Remaining Schedule - @Iona, Northern Iowa, @Niagara, @Canisius
Status - They are 6-0 against RPI 51-100, but are 0 for 4 in their attempts against the top 50. Combined with their two losses outside the top 100, they have quite a flimsy resume, despite their high RPI. They have 2 more games against the RPI top 100 on their schedule, but 3 more games on the road. If they win out and fail to win the MAAC tournament, I think they would still sneak in there.
Projection - They’ll stumble @Niagara but win the automatic bid anyways.
Creighton
Remaining Schedule - @Southern Illinois, Evansville, @Missouri State, Illinois State
Status - They have been creeping up the boards as of late despite the fact that they’ve only faced 1 team in the top 50 (a win against Dayton). They are 4-3 against 51-100, but have 3 losses outside the top 100. If they win out, that would give them 2 more top 100 wins and a 14-4 conference record. If they lost in the tournament final, they would be hard to pass up.
Projection - They’ll do enough to warrant an at-large bid, but they’ll win the conference anyways.
Utah
Remaining Schedule - Air Force, @Colorado State, UNLV, @BYU, @New Mexico, TCU
Status - Although I don’t believe they are very good, they are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 and 3-1 against 51-100. The glaring problem on their resume is their two losses outside the top 100, one of which was to a Division II school. I think a very do-able 4-2 down the stretch will lock them in without any help in the conference tournament.
Projection - Even if they trip up, the committee chair this year is a representative of Utah. Lock ‘em in.
UNLV
Remaining Schedule - Colorado State, @Wyoming, BYU, @Utah, Air Force, @San Diego State
Status - They have 3 wins in the RPI top 50, including 2 in the top 25. They also beat 51st ranked Arizona, so as they continue to climb, so does UNLV. Like Utah, they have 2 losses outside the top 100. At 6-4 in the conference currently, they should be aiming at a 10-6 finish. They have 3 of the other bubble contenders left on their schedule, so beating BYU at home, where they haven’t been all that impressive, is imperative.
Projection - I think they will look past Wyoming and lose in Laramie. They’ll end up either 8-8 or 9-7 in the league, and even the Las Vegas home factor wont help them in the conference tournament. I think they will fall out.
BYU
Remaining Schedule - @TCU, New Mexico, @UNLV, @San Diego St., Utah, @ Wyoming, Air Force
Status - While UNLV and Utah have good wins coupled with bad losses, BYU doesn’t really have either. Their wins against Utah State and San Diego State are their only ones in the top 50, but all their losses come to teams in the top 75. The schedule for them is absolutely brutal. They have to play all of their bubble mates in a row, 2 of them on a road, and then to top it all off they have to win in the mountains of Wyoming. They can get by with a 4-3 finish to get to 10-6 in the conference.
Projection - BYU will have a tough time of it, like UNLV, and wont make it. Critics will call it the biggest injustice of the year.
San Diego State
Remaining Schedule - Wyoming, @New Mexico, BYU, @TCU, Colorado St., UNLV
Status - They only have 3 wins against the top 100, including 1 against the top 50, and have a lose to 108 Wyoming. The schedule is easy in comparison to some of the others, and if they can win all their games save their trip to New Mexico, they’ll be 12-4 in the conference and will be looking good despite their lackluster non-conference resume.
Projection - Not only do they end up 12-4, they win the MWC tournament.
New Mexico
Remaining Schedule - @BYU, San Diego State, TCU, @Colorado St., Utah, @Wyoming
Status - Despite their 7-3 conference record, they have only 3 wins against the RPI top 100, exactly how many losses they have outside the top 100. However, they have 3 games left against the top 50, and 2 of them are at home. If they can win 2 of those 3 and win their other 3, their 12-4 conference record would look swell. Just swell.
Projection - I think they’ll win 5 of 6, but that trip to Wyoming is a real trap game. They make it.
Arizona
Remaining Schedule -UCLA, @Arizona St., @Wazu, @Washington, Cal, Stanford
Status - I really like their resume as of right now. 5-6 against the top 50, 2-2 against 51-100, and no losses outside of the top 100 looks legit. Their last 6 games, 3 of which are on the road, are extremely tough (all teams in the top 100 currently). If they get through it at 3-3 that would give them an above .500 record in the Pac 10, and it would be enough.
Projection - They’ll drop 3 of 4 before winning their last 2. That would likely put them in the 4/5 match in the Pac 10 tournament. They’ll win again there and will be a lock.
USC
Remaining Schedule - @Zona St., Wazu, Washington, @Cal, @Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State
Status - They are 6-5 in the conference, and 6-6 against the RPI top 100. Their loss to Oregon State really hurts their chances. If they can win their home games against the Washington and Oregon schools, they would be looking OK.
Projection - They’ll lose 4 more games and will not make it.
South Carolina
Remaining Schedule - @Alabama,, @Miss. St., Arkansas, Kentucky, @Vandy, Tennessee, @Georgia
Status - At 6-3 in the SEC with a 6-4 mark against the RPI top 100, things aren’t too shabby for the Cocks. 4-3 down the stretch would make them awfully bubbly, and with this schedule they should really be aiming for 5 wins. That would lock them in.
Projection - I don’t see any sure losses on this schedule, but only a few sure wins. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they make it.
Kentucky
Remaining Schedule - @Arkansas, @Vanderbilt, Tennessee, @South Carolina, LSU, Georgia, @Florida
Status - Like South Carolina, they are 6-3 on the road. Unlike South Carolina, they have a slightly worse 6-6 record against the top 100, although 2 of those are against the top 25. Their loss to VMI in the first game of the year is a distant memory and shouldn’t carry too much weight for the committee. This schedule is very tough, and they could end up 8-8 in the conference. 10-6 in the weak SEC is a must if they don’t want to rely on the conference tournament.
Projection - They’ll lose 3 of their road games and drop a game at home, putting them at 9-7 in league play and squarely on the bubble. Then, out of nowhere they will rise from the ashes and win the SEC tournament
St. Mary’s
Remaining Schedule - Portland, San Diego, Utah State, @Pepperdine, @Loyola
Status - They have really struggled without Patty Mills, losing 4 of 5. If they win all of their games in the regular season, which would include a win against mighty Utah State, they may have enough for the committee to grant them leniency due to the Mills injury.
Projection - If Mills is back for the WCC tournament, watch out. I’m hoping they’ll be put in regardless, but sometimes the committee doesn’t use common sense. I'll go with my hope and say In.
Davidson
Remaining Schedule - a bunch of scrubs and Butler
Status - Even if they don’t beat Butler, I still think they’d make it if they lost in their conference tournament. Although the resume is rather weak, after what they did last year the committee wouldn’t want to shun Stephen Curry from the tournament. As long as they don’t trip up in their conference regular season, I think they are a lock.
Projection - They won’t lose again until the NCAAs roll around.
Utah State
Remaining Schedule - @Boise State, CS-Bakersfield, @St. Mary’s, Hawaii, @Nevada, SJSU
Status - Their remaining schedule is their most difficult of the year. If they win all of these games, I could see them getting as high as a 4 seed. However if they drop all of those 3 tough road games, and then fail to win the WAC tournament, I can see the committee throwing them out completely.
Projection - They’ll lose 2 more games, but will be fine in the WAC tournament. They will get a 10 seed.
At the end of the day, barring a non-contender stealing a bid via conference tournament (which will happen, as it does every year), there are 5 teams in my current projections that I think won’t make it.
They are:
Miami Florida
UNLV
BYU
Cincinnati
Boston College
The teams I predict will replace them are:
Kansas State
San Diego State
Texas A&M
St. Mary’s
New Mexico
I'll be back with another Bubble Breakdown next week!
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