Currently, there are 5 teams that look poised to make a run for an at-large bid. Many projections show as many as 4 teams making it from this conference. To me, it is the most difficult conference to decipher what is going to happen. I’m convinced that 3 teams will make it, but any combination is feasible.
Almost all the heavyweights play each other again, and that may cause quite a bit of parity in the mountains. I see Utah, UNLV, and BYU as needing 10 wins to be in position for an at-large berth. I think New Mexico and San Diego State might need 12. BYU has by far the toughest road, playing 6 teams in a row in the top 115 in the RPI, 4 of these games being on the road. At this point, New Mexico seems like a long shot, but it is not too much to ask for them to beat S.D. State and Utah in the Pit and then go on the road and knock off Wyoming and Colorado State. Winning 5 of 6 is very possible for them, and that would put them at 12-4. Utah is the conferences best chance at an at-large. They have racked up more quality wins than anybody else, and the Utah-chaired committee will be willing to look past a couple of hiccups on the way. UNLV has two tough games on the road against Utah and S.D. State. Even if they lose both of these games, winning the rest of their games would still look pretty good. San Diego State has home games against BYU and UNLV. If they can win them both and avoid any upsets, they’ll be looking pretty good too.
In the best case scenario, I think it’s entirely possible this conference gets 5 bids. All it would take would be for the Big 5 to protect their home court and win all their road games against the bottom end of the confernce. Here’s how:
New Mexico
@ BYU L
San Diego St. W
TCU W
@Colorado St. W
Utah W
@ Wyoming W
Utah
Air Force W
@Colorado St. W
UNLV W
@BYU L
@New Mexico L
TCU W
UNLV
Colorado St. W
@Wyoming W
BYU W
@Utah L
Air Force W
@S.D. St. L
BYU
@TCU W
New Mexico W
@UNLV L
@S.D. St. L
Utah W
@Wyoming W
Air Force W
San Diego St.
Wyoming W
@New Mexico L
BYU W
@TCU W
Colorado St. W
UNLV W
In this scenario, the conference standings would be:
W L
San Diego St. 12 4
New Mexico 12 4
Utah 12 4
BYU 11 5
UNLV 10 6
So if it ended up this way, and UNLV did some damage in the conference tournament, it would be difficult to hold any of these teams out of the tournament. This league could possibly get more bids than the SEC.
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I like this analysis. Do you mind if I put a link to this on my blog (mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com)?
ReplyDeleteI do disagree that 5 teams could make it in any given scenario. If UNLV doesn't win the conference tournament on their home floor, while finishing 5th in the conference, they probably get shut out. If UNLV does win the conference tournament, that mean New Mexico didn't. With their several bad losses out of conference (and 9-6 OOC record), I think that puts New Mexico out. It would be tough to hold one of the teams out, but I think they would, merely from the standpoint that the league doesn't have enough respect to merit 5 bids.